That the party holding the White House loses seats in a midterm election is as close to an iron law as exists in American politics. Typically, the more unpopular the president, the worse the drubbing.
By that measure, Republicans should face a rout in November.
Indeed, since 1938, the president’s party has lost House seats in all but two midterms – 1998 and 2022 – and those were products of extraordinary circumstances, coming right after a failed impeachment attempt and the September 11th attacks, respectively.
Outside of those unique situations, the history is clear.
From “1934 through 2018, the President’s party has averaged a loss of 28 House seats and four Senate seats” according to The American Presidency Project.
Moreover, there is a correlation between a president’s approval and the outcome of the midterms.
In 1994, former President Bill Clinton had a 43% approval rating at this point before that year’s midterms, and saw Democrats lose 54 House seats and eight Senate seats.
And in 2006, former President Bush – who, like Trump, was mired in an unpopular Middle East war – had just a 37% approval rating. Republicans lost 30 House and six Senate seats, ending Bush’s majorities.
Then came 2010. Democrats, led by former President Barack Obama and his 44% approval rating were absolutely hammered, losing 63 House and six Senate seats, the biggest midterm wipeout since 1938.
Trump himself is no stranger to this phenomenon. During his first term, with an approval sitting at 41%, Republicans lost 41 House seats, although they did gain 2 Senate seats.
Even popular presidents struggle. In 1970, former President Richard Nixon – whose approval rating never dropped below 51% from August through late October – lost 12 House seats.
To that end, Trump’s standing today appears worse off than any of those previous presidents. His approval rating, at 36% according to CNN’s poll of polls, is 25-points underwater and markedly lower than those presidents.
On average, RealClearPolitics shows Trump with marginally better 41% approval versus 56% disapproval rating, though the trend is clear: with presidential approval at these levels, Democrats should be well positioned to take back at least the House.
However, a number of critical asterisks could blunt talk of a “blue wave” in November.
In 2022, former President Joe Biden had a 43% approval rating on July 21st of that year, immediately prior to the now-infamous debate which precipitated his withdrawal from the race.
Further, like Trump, Biden was dealing with punishing inflation and growing economic discontent, causing many to predict a “red wave” that year.
But it never arrived. Democrats lost just nine House seats – the smallest House loss for a president’s party since 1990 – and actually gained a Senate seat.
What 2022 confirmed was that, like 1998 and 2002, outside circumstances – backlash from the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade and a slate of weak Republican candidates – can break the link between presidential approval and midterm carnage.
For Republicans, there are signs that similar distortions may happen again, albeit for different reasons.
Structurally, there are simply less competitive districts. Cook Political Report counts 37 competitive districts for 2026, down from 75 in 2018.
Mid-decade redistricting – on both sides – will potentially benefit Republicans, but even more critically, it has hollowed out the battlefield.
With fewer competitive seats up for grabs, there is a ceiling on how large any “wave” election can realistically be.
That being said, more important may be what is happening beneath the surface and Democrats’ failure to capitalize on Trump’s approval struggles.
Eight years ago, Democrats won 90% of voters who disapproved of Trump’s performance, contributing to the 2018 landslide.
Now, that share has fallen to 69% according to the aforementioned CNN poll of polls.
Put another way, while Trump may be more unpopular than he has ever been, Democrats are no more attractive. The favorability of the Democratic Party – 38% – is actually 3-points lower than Trump’s 41% average.
In that same vein, Democrats’ 5-point lead in the generic congressional ballot is half of the 10-point lead they had at this point ahead of the 2018 midterms, according to NBC News polling.
A recent Washington Post/Ipsos survey also illustrates this disconnect. That poll showed Trump’s approval rating at a dismal 37%, weighed down by just 33% approval on the economy.
And yet, in that poll’s generic ballot, Democrats held just a 3-point lead.
Candidate quality also matters. Many Republican candidates are polling ahead of Trump’s approval rating according to CNN and the New York Times/Siena polls.
For their part, Democrats are fielding a number of far-left, openly socialist candidates, which CNBC’s All America Survey suggests could be dragging down the party.
That poll revealed that one-half of voters would be less likely to vote for a Democratic Socialist compared to roughly one-third (32%) who would be more likely.
To be clear, while these may be reassuring for Republicans, none of this is to say their majorities are truly safe.
Democrats hold a 10-point advantage in voter enthusiasm per Washington Post/Ipsos, and are reportedly 10-points more likely to vote than Republicans.
The GOP’s razor thin House margins mean that even without a blowout, they could very easily still lose the House, and their odds to retain the Senate sit in the mid-50’s according to Polymarket.
Ultimately, neither side should feel particularly comfortable. Republicans are struggling with an unpopular president and the weight of history.
Conversely, despite increasingly negative attitudes towards Trump, Democrats remain unable to break away due to problems with the party’s brand and candidate choice.
Nevertheless, history and polls suggest this is Democrats’ midterm to lose, and if they drastically underperform, the party will limp into an even more significant 2028 in a worrying position.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.