The Del Mar summer season that ended Sunday left Southern California horse racing fans with questions to answer as anticipation builds for the Breeders’ Cup at the same track this fall.
As of Thursday, it’s 50 days to the Breeders’ Cup, which will feature five races for 2-year-olds on Friday, Nov. 1, and nine for older horses on Saturday, Nov. 2, topped by the $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic.
While major races in September and October at Santa Anita and in Kentucky, New York and Pennsylvania will help to identify contenders, it will be up to bettors and other fans to figure out where the winners are coming from.
Here are five key questions to begin the buildup to the Breeders’ Cup:
A marquee horse
Is there one star, a drawing card for casual fans, a horse for gamblers to bet big on or bet big against?
So far, no – there’s no Triple Crown winner, no undefeated older horse, no female challenging the boys in the Classic.
But a headliner could emerge in early Breeders’ Cup Classic favorite Fierceness, the well-beaten Kentucky Derby favorite who finally put two wins back to back in the Jim Dandy and Travers at Saratoga. Or Breeders’ Cup Distaff favorite Thorpedo Anna, the dominant 3-year-old filly who came up a nose short of beating all of the colts in the Travers. Or English Derby winners City of Troy, who could become the first champion of that race to win the Classic, and Auguste Rodin, a would-be repeat winner in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Or Getaway Car, the Bob Baffert-trained 2-year-old named for a Taylor Swift song.
Or all of the above.
The home team
After California-based horses went winless in the 2023 Breeders’ Cup races at Santa Anita, who will be the host state’s best shots in 2024?
The best of all right now looks like Sweet Azteca in the Filly & Mare Sprint. The Michael McCarthy-trained 4-year-old filly has five wins in six starts. Her latest win was by seven lengths with No. 1 U.S. jockey Flavien Prat in the Rancho Bernardo Handicap at Del Mar. Her win before that was by five lengths in a Los Alamitos-record 1:14.33 for 6 1/2 furlongs in the Great Lady M Stakes at Los Alamitos.
“At this time, I can’t picture anyone beating this extremely talented filly in the Filly & Mare Sprint,” said Jon White, the retired Santa Anita and Del Mar morning-line oddsmaker.
Other horses from the Southern California tracks who rate as contenders include Adare Manor in the Distaff, The Chosen Vron and Raging Torrent in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, and Del Mar final-weekend winners Gaming in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Tenma in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, and Thought Process in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.
Upsets and other setbacks at Del Mar clouded the picture for some West Coast hopefuls. An upset at Saratoga did the same for another, the Bob Baffert-trained 2023 Preakness winner and Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile runner-up National Treasure; he ran poorly at odds-on in the Whitney Stakes behind winner Arthur’s Ride, himself later trounced by Highland Falls in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.
“If he had won the Whitney, he might well be considered the Breeders’ Cup Classic favorite, or at least no worse than third favorite behind Fierceness and City of Troy,” White said of National Treasure. “Now it’s up in the air as to which Breeders’ Cup (race) he will even run in.”
Something new
Will the California Crown change the western road to the Breeders’ Cup?
The California Crown is the Saturday, Sept. 28 racing, music and dining extravaganza at Santa Anita that will feature pumped-up purses for the California Crown Stakes – now $1 million, up from $300,000 last year when it was the Awesome Again Stakes – and other potential Breeders’ Cup preps.
As the Awesome Again and the Goodwood Handicap before that, the race sent five winners on to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic: Ferdinand (1987), Tiznow (2000), Pleasantly Perfect (2003), Mucho Macho Man (2013) and Accelerate (2018).
Will the higher purses, as well as the now-$750,000 John Henry Turf Championship and Eddie D. Stakes turf sprint, draw Breeders’ Cup contenders who wouldn’t have been at Santa Anita anyway?
As yet the horse to watch in the California Crown Stakes could be Muth, the Baffert 3-year-old playing catch-up to get ready for the Classic.
Foreign flair
Is this the year Japan’s rising racing industry wins an elite American race?
Forever Young missed by two noses in the Kentucky Derby in May, and Derma Sotogake finished second by a length to White Abarrio in the 2023 Classic while Ushba Tesoro was about three lengths back in fifth.
The experts who vote on the Breeders’ Cup Classic contender rankings rate Forever Young No. 3 (behind Fierceness and City of Troy), Ushba Tesoro No. 8 and Derma Sotogake No. 9.
Track trends
How will the Del Mar track itself affect the Breeders’ Cup?
During the recent meet, the main, dirt running surface favored horses with early speed. Of the seven stakes-level races at 1 mile or longer on dirt, six were won by horses who were first or second throughout (the other was the dominant Adare Manor rallying from fourth in the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes).
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As handicapper, radio host and horse owner Jon Lindo said when we chatted about this at Del Mar, the ability of horses to stretch their speed on the Del Mar dirt could help horses trying 1 1/4 miles for the first time in the Classic. Such as Muth, the Arkansas Derby winner at 1 1/8 miles, if he goes in the Classic after two races in seven months.
A lot of questions, and maybe the biggest is whether 50 days is enough to answer them.
Follow horse racing correspondent Kevin Modesti at Twitter.com/KevinModesti.