While on Nov. 3 the national Republican Party got a proper comeuppance for its massive failures, nothing of the kind happened to the California Democratic Party for its equal failures at the state level. Once again, its candidates easily won all eight statewide offices and supermajorities in the Assembly and state Senate.
Republicans regressed. Steve Hilton, despite an excellent campaign, garnered just 36% of the vote, to 64% for Democrat Xavier Becerra. By comparison, Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom won 59% in his 2022 reelection bid, to 41% for Republican Brian Dahle.
Part of that difference was due to Republican President Donald Trump’s unpopularity. But Hilton losing with just above one-third of the vote puts the GOP on the path of Zed, the extinct Columbian mammoth excavated two decades ago next to the La Brea Tar Pits.
Another problem is the Public Policy Institute of California identified Republicans as “disproportionately” exiting this state. At least 10 of my Republican friends have left since the 2022 election. Most have gone to Tennessee, which has no state income tax and housing costs less than half here.
Becerra ran an uninspiring campaign that coasted on party labels and the endorsement of the real powers in the state, the public-employee unions. Given his inevitable victory, the California Chamber of Commerce, the California Trucking Association and the California Medical Association also backed him.
Becerra deigned to join only a single debate with Hilton. That denied voters the proper airing of the many problems Newsom leaves behind over the budget, schools, housing, homelessness and immigration.
For the other statewide offices, the only one breaking above 36% for Republicans was Sonja Shaw, president of the Chino Valley Unified School District board. She grabbed 43% for superintendent of public instruction, to 57% for Richard Barrera, president of the San Diego Unified School District board, bankrolled with $5 million from the California Teachers Association.
That may reflect parents’ continued dissatisfaction with the subpar overall performance of Golden State public schools. Iwunze Ugo, a research fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California, testified before the Assembly Committee on Education on Oct. 13, just before the election.
“Funding has nearly doubled since 2013,” he said. Math proficiency improved before the pandemic interrupted that progress in 2020. Despite subsequent gains, scores are below 2019 and “less than half of students meet standards and there are persistent achievement gaps across student groups.”
Then there’s the state budget. In May, the Legislative Analyst warned “projected deficits are now closer to $10 billion per year.” That was despite a projected windfall of $16.5 billion in extra revenues the next three years. GovTech reported that came “from taxes on high-income residents’ stock gains,” which soared with the AI boom.
If the AI bubble bursts, the state could be hit with something like the $35 billion deficit Gov. Gray Davis faced in 2003 during the dot-com bust.
The fiscal situation was made worse by the decisions voters made on the ballot measures. Proposition 1, $11.25 billion in housing bonds, will cost up to $600 million a year to repay. Proposition 38, $8.4 billion for immunology research, also will cost up to $600 million a year, unless it generates revenues, by no means guaranteed. Total: up to $1.2 billion in new costs to the general fund.
Voters sensibly defeated Proposition 40, the tax on billionaires’ wealth, which would have driven our most productive citizens from the state, taking with them their tax payments and investments in businesses. And Proposition 42, prohibiting new personal property taxes, was passed.
But voters also passed Proposition 3, making permanent the confiscatory 13.3% income tax on high incomes. Voters defeated two tax limitation measures, Propositions 41 and 43, and turned back Proposition 45, which would have expedited environmental reviews for construction projects.
The main effect of those four initiative verdicts was to send a signal that this state remains hostile to taxpayers and, despite the housing bonds and dozens of pro-housing bills, confused about easing rules for new housing.
In this progressive state, with its scary but promising AI companies creating the future, politics remains unimaginative and stuck in the past.
John Seiler is on the SCNG Editorial Board