For Los Angeles progressives, Nithya Raman’s victory over Karen Bass is the culmination of years of organizing and electoral gains that have reshaped City Hall.
But it also raises a question that could define Raman’s mayoralty: How many Angelenos voted for her vision of a more progressive city, and how many simply wanted a change from Bass?
The answer may be both, according to political observers, who point to the growing strength of progressive candidates alongside widespread dissatisfaction with Bass’ handling of the deadly Palisades fire and other challenges facing Los Angeles.
Fernando Guerra, a political science professor and founding director of Loyola Marymount University’s Center for the Study of Los Angeles, described Raman’s victory as transformational, saying it reflected a new political coalition built around younger voters and an increasingly influential progressive movement.
But when asked which factor was most decisive, Guerra pointed to voters’ desire to reject the political establishment.
“I think it was the anti-establishment vote for change,” Guerra said.
He described that sentiment as part of a broader national trend, with voters frustrated by political leaders they believe have failed to respond to their needs. While that frustration was directed largely at Republicans nationally, who controlled the White House and Congress going into Tuesday’s midterm elections, Guerra said, in Los Angeles it was aimed at established Democratic leaders such as Bass.
Guerra said polls showed voters were unhappy with Bass’ job performance, but that didn’t necessarily mean they disliked her personally.
Mike Trujillo, a Democratic consultant who supported Bass in the race but did not work on her campaign, said Raman faces an important question about the voters who propelled her to victory.
“She needs to figure out what part of her vote was pro-Nithya, and what part of her vote was anti-Karen Bass,” Trujillo said.
Those who supported Raman primarily because they were dissatisfied with Bass may not necessarily remain loyal when the new mayor encounters political difficulties, he said.
Trujillo said Bass never fully recovered politically from criticism spurred by her response to the deadly 2025 Palisades fire, which left her vulnerable to a challenge. He argued that had the fires not occurred, or had Bass managed the resulting political crisis more effectively, Raman might never have entered the race.
Raman had initially endorsed Bass before launching her own mayoral campaign.
Former City Councilmember and county Supervisor Zev Yaroslavsky offered a similar assessment in an interview Wednesday, saying the outcome appeared to reflect dissatisfaction with Bass’ administration more than an endorsement of Raman’s specific campaign promises.
Still, Raman’s victory comes amid a longer-term shift in Los Angeles politics, as progressive candidates and organizations have steadily expanded their influence at City Hall.
Raman became the first Democratic Socialists of America-backed candidate elected to the City Council in 2020. Other candidates backed by the organization, including Hugo Soto-Martinez, Eunisses Hernandez and Ysabel Jurado, subsequently won council seats, giving the progressive movement a growing presence in city government.
The movement’s growing influence could extend to Los Angeles’ three highest-profile citywide elected offices — mayor, city attorney and controller — if the results in the city attorney race hold.
Guerra said those electoral gains demonstrate that the DSA has become an established force in Los Angeles politics.
“The DSA is not a glitch in the system,” he said. “They are a major component of the system.”
But Guerra cautioned against interpreting the victories as proof that voters have embraced every element of the organization’s policy agenda.
“Not so much their policies, but their broader ideas, their newness and that they’re not part of the establishment,” he said.
Yaroslavsky said the city’s shift to holding municipal elections in even-numbered years helped broaden participation and create opportunities for candidates outside traditional political coalitions.
He recalled viewing Raman’s initial council victory as potentially “the beginning of a transformation of … the L.A. political architecture.”
While progressive candidates have gained influence, Yaroslavsky cautioned that winning elections does not necessarily mean they can dictate the city’s direction.
“They don’t control the outcomes of things, but they certainly influence them,” he said.
The election also reflected what Guerra and other political analysts described as a generational divide.
Guerra said younger voters were central to Raman’s coalition, contrasting it with earlier mayoral coalitions built around geography or ethnicity.
Data from Political Data Inc., a California voter-data firm, showed that voters ages 18 to 34 accounted for 21.9% of returned ballots in Los Angeles, compared with 18.4% in the comparable 2022 election. But those figures do not indicate which candidates the voters supported.
Raman now faces the challenge of governing a city where some constituencies remain skeptical of her approach.
The Los Angeles Police Protective League, which represents LAPD officers and spent millions of dollars on ads attacking Raman during the campaign, congratulated her Thursday and said its president, Ricky Mendoza, had reached out to establish a dialogue.
But the union also expressed concern about potential reductions in police staffing and their implications for public safety.
“The campaign is over, the voters have spoken and it is now our job to work with Mayor-elect Raman and her team on governing the city. We commit to doing our part to help her succeed,” the union’s board of directors said in a statement.
For Raman, the test will be whether she can maintain the support of voters eager for change while navigating the constraints of city government.
Trujillo warned that supporters may expect changes more quickly than the city’s institutions allow.
“I know there’s an urgency among her voters to go fast,” he said. “But that’s not how the city of L.A. was built. And I don’t think there’s anything that’s going to allow her to go fast, at least institutionally outside of executive directives.”