Democrats are consolidating around former Health Secretary Xavier Becerra and billionaire philanthropist Tom Steyer in the California governor’s race as Republicans rally behind former Fox News host Steve Hilton, a new independent poll shows.
The Emerson College poll, which surveyed 1,000 likely primary voters May 9 and 10, is the latest survey that signals a tightening of the race just weeks before the June 2 primary.
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“The frontrunners are established,” GOP consultant Mike Madrid said. “Now the question is what can happen to change those dynamics, if anything. It would take a Swalwell-type of explosion to change the trajectory of the race.”
Ex-Rep. Eric Swalwell was leading in the race to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom, but dropped out last month following sexual misconduct allegations, which he denies, and resigned his seat in Congress.
Former Health Secretary Xavier Becerra seems to have benefited the most from Swalwell’s exit. Emerson College’s March survey had him toward the back of the pack with 3% support, compared with the latest poll that showed him topping the leaderboard with 19% support.
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Hilton, who has consistently been at the top of polls as Democrats fracture their support among multiple candidates, was a close second with 17.1% followed by Steyer at 16.6%. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican who has seen somewhat of a downward trajectory since President Donald Trump endorsed Hilton, had 10.7% support followed by Democratic former Rep. Katie Porter at 10.3%. Rounding out the bottom of the poll were San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan at 7.9%, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa at 4% and state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond at 1.1%.
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Mahan, who was the last of the leading candidates to jump in the race, has struggled to break through in the race. Madrid said that across numerous polls, Mahan has sat at a 6 to 8 point range.
“Directionally, he’s stuck, he’s not moving,” he said. “Even Porter has a little bit more volatility and she has a very hard floor and hard ceiling.”
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a news release that Becerra topped “the crowded California primary for the first time in an Emerson poll, his support increased by nine points since mid-April, driven by now being the top choice among Democratic voters at 31%.”
In comparison, 24% of Democratic voters polled said they would support Steyer and 13% picked Porter.
Among the top three candidates — Becerra, Hilton and Steyer — Hilton voters were most likely to not change their vote at 73%, the polled showed. For Becerra voters, 52% said they will definitely vote for him, while 48% of Steyer voters said they would support him.
Just 12% of voters remain undecided less than three weeks out from the primary where the top two vote-getters, regardless of political party, will move onto the November runoff. The current trajectory of the race could help sway those who have yet to make up their mind.
“Undecideds have a very very high likelihood of breaking the way the trend line is moving,” Madrid said.
The poll comes as ballots hit mailboxes earlier this month and early voting has gotten underway. Registered voters can return their ballot by mail or at a drop-off location. Vote Centers will open for in-person voting on May 23 in Voting Choice Act counties, which include Santa Clara, San Mateo and Alameda counties.