Sean Payton is Rice Krispies. He snaps, crackles and pops. And that’s just at postgame news conferences. But when he sees the right quarterback, the record scratches and he stops.
In what is the Broncos’ most important draft since 2018, the answer is simple: trust the coach.
He doesn’t make it easy. He runs hot, bristles more than a paintbrush, and his intelligence comes across as arrogance. The Broncos hired Payton to fix Russell Wilson, and, in absence of that, find a franchise quarterback.
Thursday presents his opportunity. It is time for the quarterback whisperer to scream to Pikes Peak, and choose the right one in the first round.
At the risk of reminding you what you already know, the Broncos have stunk the last eight years, failing to reach the playoffs and posting seven consecutive losing seasons. They have used 13 starting quarterbacks during this time, second only to the Cleveland Browns.
Payton went to Jarrett last offseason. Stidham was more rough than diamond. Now, it’s time to draft Plan A. Zach Wilson is merely a low-cost flier, a potential better backup than Stidham or, if the draft variables mock the Broncos, a bridge starter for one season.
If that happens, the Broncos should distribute modern trash bags for the heads of fans to match the new uniforms.
Payton is a stranger to patience. He still regrets not moving up and drafting Patrick Mahomes in 2017. There is at least one scenario, if not two, where cutting in line for a quarterback makes sense. This is not my push for instant gratification or a dopamine rush. However, if the Broncos walk away without a quarterback, it will be a prescription for melatonin.
It is not going to be easy. For starters, they do not control the process. If the Broncos want to remove variables, they need to trade to No. 3 or No. 4 where the Patriots and Cardinals are listening. The Broncos have called those teams. Both appear willing to wait until they are on the clock before engaging in serious discussions. If Jayden Daniels is available, the Broncos must hit speed dial and do everything they can to land the pick.
Daniels would change the Broncos, providing a jolt of electricity to an acoustic offense with his arm and feet. Washington, though, likely takes him. So, this is where things get interesting for Payton.
How much does he like the next tier of J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr.? If the Vikings do not trade with the Chargers at No. 5 for McCarthy, will that start a slide for the Michigan star? He was more of a glorified game manager than a playmaker in college. But, he is a winner, leader and ran pro concepts in college, likely accelerating his transition to the pros. If he’s the guy, swap firsts and throw in a 2025 second-rounder to Atlanta at No. 8 and get him.
No. J.J.? OK.
Then I contradict myself and plead for restraint.
Easy for me to say when this is Payton’s legacy at stake. He is not going to the Hall of Fame without reviving the Broncos franchise. And that is not happening in the current AFC landscape without a good quarterback.
The easy move is to stay at 12, and select Oregon’s Bo Nix. He is experienced, having played at Auburn with Bo Jackson (I kid because I care). He is athletic, mobile and has the arm strength to complete the type of routes Payton’s offense demands.
The problem with Nix is simple: His ceiling. He feels like an NFL starter, not a top-15 player at the position. Can Payton help him exceed expectations? Yes. And he must for this move to work.
Everyone I trust regarding the draft believes the 24-year-old Nix will be available in the 20s. The Broncos need upgrades at a number of positions. You can’t pick the number and the team, but there are potential partners with the Rams (19), Steelers (20) and Eagles (22). Trade back, land a second-round pick and take Nix later in the first.
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It does not change the commitment. The fifth-year option is available. It also adds another potential starter with the second-round selection. Nix is a risk. All first-round quarterbacks are. A recent USA Today study found that 60 percent of them have failed since 1999, including Paxton Lynch.
This matters little to Payton. He believes in his eye and evaluation of the position. Fit matters. And after watching the Broncos’ previous 13 starters look like raccoons fighting their way out of a hefty bag, this is something. If not everything. Payton will demand a lot. He personally worked out McCarthy and Nix, and the club held a top 30 visit with Penix.
The Broncos have done their homework. They are prepared, knowing that they will need some luck beginning with Washington’s second overall pick. If Payton nails this, it will create a seismic shift towards relevance.
The draft, though, is fickle. When you are right few remember. When you are wrong no one forgets. But if the Broncos don’t take a quarterback in the first round, will anyone forgive?
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