Whoever first said “Left Coast” was on to something.
Especially in California.
A study released this month by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California found the Golden State’s left-right political divide running east to west — coastal to inland — instead of north and south.
“A lot of East Coast political types still look at California and think of a north-south divide between Los Angeles and the Bay Area,” said Dan Schnur, who teaches courses in politics, communications and leadership at UC Berkeley, the University of Southern California and Pepperdine University.
“But the much more significant divide — that’s not just political, but social, cultural and economic — is between coastal and inland California. This (study) makes it clear what most of us already knew: coastal and inland California entirely, may as well be different states.”
Or, as Jack Pitney puts it: “If you smell salt water, you’re in a Democratic county. If you smell dust, you’re in a Republican one.”
“That’s an exaggeration, of course,” the professor of American politics at Claremont McKenna College said via email. “But the electoral map shows that there is something to it.”
Using past survey data and computer modeling, the study gauged political leanings in 46 areas of the Golden State. Overall, California leans left, with 32% of Californians calling themselves somewhat or very liberal, compared to 25% who say they’re somewhat or very conservative, the study found.
Liberal politics are the norm in San Francisco and Marin counties, where 80% consider themselves left wing, according to the study. Coastal Los Angeles County also is majority liberal, with conservatives gaining ground further inland.
The split also shows up in the 2024 presidential vote.
Democratic candidate Kamala Harris got more than 80% of the Bay Area’s vote but got less than half of the vote in most inland areas, the study found.
Most Californians live in or near the Bay Area and L.A. County, giving Democrats, who make up a plurality of the state’s registered voters, a key edge in statewide elections. A Republican hasn’t won statewide office since Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2006.
“The ‘left coast’ pattern has become even more pronounced, with coastal regions in all of the West Coast states (California, Oregon, and Washington) being more liberal,” Marcia Godwin, a professor of public administration at the University of La Verne, said via email.
“However, the San Diego region has become more Democratic and the solidly conservative areas have shrunk with population growth and political trends.”
The Bay Area is something of a political unicorn, per the study.
“Bay Area residents are, on average, more liberal, more Democratic, and more supportive of the liberal point of view on individual issues than other parts of the state, including areas like coastal L.A. that are often considered quite liberal,” the study read.
“Bay Area residents are also less likely to worry about paying their bills and have become less likely to say housing is a big problem even as concern heats up elsewhere.”
Orange County used to be the center of conservatism, but today, “Orange County residents are about as likely to call themselves liberal as conservative,” the study states.
“The modern center of California conservatism is the far north of the state” in an area that includes inland Shasta, Tehama, Glenn and Butte counties.
Godwin noted a shift among voters in Orange and western Riverside counties.
“There seems to have been an increase in conservative voters in western Riverside County in conjunction with neighboring Orange County trending more liberal.”
While President Donald Trump in 2024 became the first GOP White House candidate in 20 years to win Riverside and San Bernardino counties, both those counties have more registered Democratic voters than Republicans.
Both also approved Proposition 50, a 2025 ballot measure that redrew California’s congressional districts to help Democrats win more seats in a nationwide redistricting war with the GOP.
“Even though Los Angeles and the Bay Area continue to be much further to the left politically, the days that inland California represented a conservative bastion are long gone,” Schnur said.
While independent voters’ ranks swelled in California in recent decades, that doesn’t mean they’re truly middle of the road — 35% lean Democrat and 22% lean Republican, according to the study.
Trump’s approval ratings are dismal in California, but not evenly statewide. He’s more popular in areas such as the southern San Joaquin Valley but especially unpopular — below 20% — in the Bay Area and central LA, the study found.
Despite their differences, Californians as a whole agree in several areas, the study found.
Fewer than half support a big state government, “a substantial majority” thinks immigrants benefit California, roughly two thirds want California to fight climate change and throughout the state, “a majority support abortion either without restrictions or with restrictions that leave it mostly legal,” the study read.
“There are only a few places in California where majorities favor the other side, and they are limited to the most conservative areas of the state,” the study read.
While two in 10 statewide worry daily or almost daily about paying bills, “parts of the Bay Area are the least concerned, as are the wealthy areas of northern San Diego around La Jolla and southern Orange County,” the study read.
On the flip side of the affordability issue are areas like the Inland Empire, where more than 30% have daily worries about bills, the study found.
Traditionally, concerns about housing costs are highest in coastal counties, but that’s changing, with inland areas worrying more about the price of housing as that concern lessens on the coast, according to the study.
As Angelenos move further inland, Schnur sees fewer opportunities for California Republicans.
“In other blue states where Republicans are more successful in statewide campaigns, their candidates make a great effort to separate themselves from the national party,” he said.
“Unless California Republicans make the same effort more aggressively, it’s difficult to see them making up a great deal of ground.”