Who will be in Andy Burnham’s Cabinet after Mahmood ‘set for Chancellor’?

Let nobody tell you otherwise – there’s nothing Westminster loves more than a bit of gossip and speculation about who’s getting picked for a big job.

So just imagine how everyone’s feeling a few days out from the Burnham Big Bang on Monday, when the ex-Mayor of Greater Manchester gets the keys to No 10.

Andy Burnham is refusing to be drawn on any of his Cabinet picks, ahead of what is guaranteed to be a major shake-up. And it’s launched a frenzy.

Speculation over the incoming PM’s pick for Chancellor is particularly rabid, and the theories have shifted a lot since I last wrote about it more than three weeks ago.

This morning, several newspapers reported Burnham has settled on Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood – but his team insist no final decision has been made, and confirmation will only come at the start of next week.

For those who can’t bear to wait a weekend now there isn’t a World Cup bid to distract us, here are a few possibilities for the top team.

Chancellor of the Exchequer

In the immediate aftermath of Keir Starmer’s resignation last month, it looked like Ed Miliband and Wes Streeting might be duking it out for the top role at the Treasury.

Miliband – considered one of Labour’s top economic minds – has never really left the frame after he advised the Burnham camp on fiscal matters.

But in recent days, it’s become widely expected that Shabana Mahmood will be switched over from her current job leading the Home Office.

Opponents of Miliband have pointed to his passion for net zero – not a sentiment that’s thought to be widely shared in Labour’s industrial heartlands – and the risk of the Treasury becoming too big for its boots under a former party leader.

Mahmood, on the other hand, is seen as someone unafraid of making radical decisions to achieve a goal as she has done with immigration reforms.

But those same reforms have made her unpopular with many Labour MPs who think they go too far. She also doesn’t have much experience in the field, only serving as shadow chief secretary to the treasury for four months in 2015 – her background is in law rather than economics.

Other options might include current Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, current Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden and former Defence Secretary John Healey, though they may be seen as not bold enough to carry out Burnham’s proposed ‘rewiring’ of the country.

Foreign Secretary

Beyond Chancellor, this is the role that has fomented the most speculation.

Incumbent Yvette Cooper has reportedly been arguing to stay at the Foreign Office by pointing out that there have already been eight different foreign secretaries in the past nine years. That’s not ideal for building diplomatic relationships.

However, the Financial Times has suggested Ed Miliband could be offered the job if he is indeed passed over for the Treasury gig.

That could be seen as a sharp rebuke – despite the shiny title, it’s less directly tied to the economy than his current role of energy secretary.

For a while, there were questions over whether Ed’s brother David Miliband – whom he famously beat to become Labour leader in 2010 – could be given a seat in the House of Lords so he could be appointed foreign secretary à la David Cameron.

The possibility seems to have died down now, though, with the elder Miliband more keen on becoming US ambassador according to the Sun.

Home Secretary

There hasn’t been as much chatter about who could take the last of the so-called ‘Great Offices of State’.

Mahmood was said to be enthusiastic about keeping her current brief and seeing through all the big changes she’s already announced.

But if Burnham decides it might make sense to row back on some of her more drastic measures – such as the extension on the time needed to get indefinite leave to remain – he may also decide it’s wise to replace her.

Who with? Wes Streeting, who all but ensured Burnham would not face a leadership contest when he instead offered his support on the day of Starmer’s resignation, could be a shout.

He’s previously said he isn’t ‘comfortable’ with some parts of Mahmood’s plans, though he backed them as ‘the right thing to do for the country’.

…And the rest

Burnham faces a big challenge in satisfying all the people who helped him pull off his extraordinary coup, while also ensuring the right people are in the right jobs.

Westminster is expecting him to appoint long-time loyalist Lou Haigh – the former transport secretary who resigned over a previous fraud conviction – as the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster to oversee the PM’s grand plans for the restructuring of the civil service and government.

But then there are other big names including Lucy Powell, the deputy Labour leader; Heidi Alexander, the transport secretary; Angela Rayner, the former deputy PM; Anneliese Midgley, another long-time supporter; Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary; and Jonathan Reynolds, the chief whip.

And what do you do with the current Cabinet ministers who are thought to be doing a decent job?

Someone is bound to be disappointed. The new PM will be hoping they don’t carry too much of a grudge.

When does Andy Burnham become PM?

Sir Keir Starmer will formally step down as leader of the Labour Party at a ‘special conference’ in London tomorrow, with Burnham being installed as his replacement.

But thanks to a precedent against someone becoming party leader and leader of the country on the same day, Starmer will stick around as PM until Monday.

He’s expected to officially step down from the top job after 11am on Monday, with Burnham stepping through the door of No 10 as Prime Minister for the first time around an hour and a half later.

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