Imagine if economists were on the ballot in November, arguing that one of their favorite measures of consumer prices says inflation isn’t as bad as you think.
The cost of living is a hot political topic this election season because everyday folks see stubbornly elevated inflation chewing up their household budgets. Soaring gas prices, thanks to a war with Iran, and costlier food are fueling 2026’s numerous cost-of-living headaches.
However, many economic analysts, including those at the powerful Federal Reserve, like to track what’s called “core inflation.” That’s the cost of living – excluding food and energy prices. That’s not a typo. No food. No energy.
This curious math suggests inflation has cooled.
To examine this statistical divide, my trusty spreadsheet analyzed average swings in Consumer Price Index values for three Southern California metro areas and the nation.
Across Southern California, the overall inflation rate hit 3.8% in September, its highest level since last November. Ouch! Two years ago, just before the last big election, consumer prices were rising at an annual rate of 3.3%.
But look at what “core” inflation – without food and energy costs – suggests: The rate is 3.3%, down from 4% in September 2024.
Nationally, it’s a very similar story.
Overall inflation was 3.7% in September, the third-highest rate since May 2023 and up from 2.4% two years earlier.
But without food and energy, there’s again a prettier picture: 2.6% now vs. 3.3% then.
Why core?
Back in the inflation-ravaged 1970s, another era with lofty gasoline prices, core inflation became a thing. Economists argue that food and energy prices are too volatile and can distort the true snapshot of consumer price gyrations.
But any normal person would say “I have to pay for eating, driving, and staying warm or cool,” depending on the season.
Why pick on food and energy? Shortly after pandemic lockdowns ended, expenses for housing, services, and durable goods – cars, appliances, furniture, etc. – drove up the cost of living.
And please note this gap: Southern California’s overall inflation rate has averaged 3.9% since 2019, while “core” is up 3.6%.
Thankfully, there’s a 2026 reality check for core inflation measurements – the CPI isn’t the only yardstick tweaked this way: These handcuffed cost metrics remain above the Fed’s goal of getting inflation down to 2%.
Fortunately, by this contorted logic, the cost of living remains a central bank concern.
Locally speaking
Here’s the inflation divide for Southern California’s three metro areas:
– Los Angeles and Orange counties: 3.7% overall inflation rate in September – highest since May 2024 vs. 2.8% two years earlier. Without food and energy? 2.6% now vs. 4.1% then.
– Inland Empire: 3.6% overall in September – highest since November 2025 – vs. 1.4% two years earlier. Without food and energy? 2% now vs. 2.8% then.
– San Diego: 4.7% overall in September – highest since November 2023 – 2.5% two years earlier. Without food and energy? 3.8% now vs. 3.4% then.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
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September’s most popular Southern California real estate stories …
No. 1: Taco Bell relocation its longtime Irvine headquarters
No. 2: Diane Keaton’s former Laguna Beach flip lists for $10 million
No. 3: What’s the best housing market in Southern California?
No. 4: Dolly Parton’s former Solvang cottage compound lists for $2 million
No. 5: Newport Coast home linked to Latin music star Peso Pluma seeks $14 million
No. 6: Ultra-luxe, ‘overengineered’ beachfront Dana Point estate seeks $65 million
No. 7: California wants more fines against Huntington Beach in housing lawsuit
No. 8: Laguna Cliffs Marriott Resort rebrands amid renovation
No. 9: Historic Dana Point home by Hollywoodland developer lists for $2.2 million
No. 10: Newport Beach waterfront estate with multi-boat dock lists for $58 million
No. 11: Costa Mesa approves plan to replace Fairview Center with 2,300 new homes
No. 12: 2-year-old Zia apartment complex sells in Anaheim
No. 13: California tenants suffered 8th-highest rent hikes in US over four decades