Conventional wisdom holds that Democrats are on the verge of a blue wave in November’s midterms.
They lead the generic congressional ballot by 8 points, and New York Times/Siena polling has them up in a number of key Senate races that could flip the upper chamber, including in red states like Texas, Alaska, and Iowa.
Moreover, prediction site Kalshi gives Democrats an 89% chance to take the House and nearly a two-thirds chance (63%) to take the Senate.
And yet, many of these forecasts overlook one central point that could, once again, make California a critical state to watch.
Indeed, the number of genuinely competitive House districts has been drastically reduced since the last “wave” election in 2018.
At that time, Cook Political Report considered 75 districts as toss-ups or competitive. Today, that sits at just 22.
With either party likely to command a majority in the single or low-double digits, a shift in just a handful of districts has an outsized impact. This is even more so after multiple states sought to tilt the midterms via controversial redistricting.
Put another way, whether due to a hardening of partisan attitudes or mid-decade redistricting, the playing field has been radically shrunk, putting a premium on each competitive seat that simply was non-existent just a few years ago.
Nevertheless, California – with its nation-leading 52 House seats and – despite the overwhelming Democratic voter advantage – remains pivotal, given the fact that whichever party wins the House will likely have thin margins.
To be sure, the Golden State’s redistricting effort has also cut the number of competitive seats, yet five of them are considered competitive according to Cook’s report.
Start in CA-13, where incumbent Democrat Adam Gray is looking to hold on to his seat versus Republican Kevin Lincoln II. Gray won the district, which per CalMatters moved only “slightly leftward” after Prop. 50, by less than 200 votes in 2024, and Lincoln is a popular mayor.
In this summer’s primary, Lincoln and fellow Republican Vin Kruttiventi split the vote, though their combined total – 43% of the vote – was ahead of Gray’s 42%, highlighting the swing nature of the district.
Polling in this race is scarce, but Cook’s rating of just “leaning” Democrat, despite the national mood, a Democrat-friendly redrawing, and Gray’s nearly 2:1 cash advantage, hints at potential underlying strength for Lincoln.
One key thing to watch is that Lincoln is endorsed by Trump, which surely helped in the primary but could be a hindrance in California.
Next is CA-22, which figures to be one of the most competitive races in the Golden State. Incumbent Republican Rep. David Valadao – who has anti-Trump bona fides in a state where that’s critical – is hoping to stave off Randy Villegas.
Registration-wise, Democrats have a 16-point advantage (42% to 26%) though Independents make up almost one-quarter of the district, and even Democratic-friendly polling found Villegas’ lead virtually within the margin of error.
A progressive, Villegas is hoping that the far-left is able to make inroads into the heart of California’s darker red districts. Sen. Bernie Sanders recently headlined a rally in Bakersfield alongside Villegas.
Reportedly, the rally attracted a considerable audience despite the temperature hovering above 100 degrees, underscoring the enthusiasm for far-left, progressive populists in what had been considered the “heart of conservative California.”
To that end, while the 22nd district will be key if the GOP hopes to narrow Democrats’ margins, the real bellwether will be a district that has long been a safe GOP haven in an otherwise sea of blue: The 48th in Southern California.
Aside from possibly the last genuine purple district in the state, it’s also an open seat with Rep. Darrell Issa retiring.
Republican Jim Desmond and Democrat Marni von Wilpert have been locked in a neck-and-neck race according to the polls, with Wilpert’s lead never exceeding the margin of error.
Desmond, a moderate who has held a non-partisan office in local government, has a slight cash advantage over Wilpert. That could prove crucial in a district where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by just roughly 4%, a small amount relative to other districts.
Similar to the situation in CA-13, that von Wilpert is polling significantly under national Democrats likely points to a competitive race, if not an actual lead for Desmond.
Ultimately, the tendency for midterms to go against the party in power – especially with an unpopular president – should set Democrats up for a very successful 2026 midterms that few could have seen just two years ago, when the party was routed.
And yet, despite the national sentiment skewing heavily in Democrats’ favor, the party’s brand is underwater due to the rise of the far left, as evidenced by these handful of races in California.
It would be no surprise if, again, California determined the margin of control in the House.
While the state has a well-earned reputation for being solidly blue, there are a number of competitive districts which could expose whether Democrats have genuinely won over voters, or if they’re merely being boosted by anti-Trump sentiment and voters will reconsider.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.