In Year 6 at Illinois, coach Bret Bielema — winner of 19 games over the last two seasons — didn’t have a dud of a 2026 campaign drawn up on the whiteboard.
There’s danger of just that, though, with the Illini at 2-3 after a sorry Homecoming loss to Big Ten doormat Purdue.
“Instead of being where we could be or should be or, in my mind, in a better place than where we’re at, we’re at 2-3,” Bielema said this week. “The thing we can’t do is let that make us fall to a lower place.”
In Year 1 at Michigan State, coach Pat Fitzgerald — whose last two Northwestern teams were 4-20 in 2021 and 2022 — has a stopgap roster most everyone figured would struggle. That hasn’t stopped Fitzgerald from getting aggravated as his Spartans also sit at 2-3.
“We’ve got to coach better, but they’ve got to frickin’ play better, too,” he said of his squad. “If we want to win, we’ve got to play better.”
Illinois (-2½) at Michigan State (2:30 p.m., FS1, 890-AM) is a game each team probably has to win if it’s going to make something — anything — of itself this season. If the Illini can’t beat the Spartans, it’ll be a repudiation of everything Bielema has built downstate. If the Spartans can’t beat the Illini, it’ll remind a bunch of people that Fitzgerald hasn’t coached a winning team in quite a while.
It’s bad vs. bad or, at best, halfway decent vs. halfway decent. Still, I’m calling it a must-win week — for both.
Bielema has a leaky defense and a balky offense to worry about, though his combo of quarterback Katin Houser and wide receiver Collin Dixon already has hooked up for an impressive eight touchdowns. That pair could — should — go off in this matchup and is a big reason I lean toward the Illini.
The Spartans have the bottom-ranked offense among all Big Ten teams, making this a golden chance for Illini defenders to run out there at Spartan Stadium and act like they’ve played football before. (They have, haven’t they?)
Year 6 vs. Year 1 is supposed to be a mismatch when the latter team has started from scratch. By the fourth quarter, it will be. Make that might be. No, will be. I-L-L, 27-17.
The Pat Fitzgerald era at @MSU_Football begins tonight 🗡️ pic.twitter.com/269E24LbOT
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 5, 2026
OTHER WEEK 6 PICKS
All games are Saturday.
Ball State (+35½) at Northwestern (11:30 a.m., BTN, 720-AM): Which Cardinals team will show up, the one that lost 56-3 at Ohio State in Week 1 or the one that has continued to get its facemask shoved in since then? Wait, those are the same teams. Wildcats, 45-7.
No. 1 Texas (-7½) vs. Oklahoma (2:30 p.m., ABC 7): You haven’t lived until you’ve taken in the Red River Rivalry at a half-burnt-orange, half-crimson Cotton Bowl Stadium in Dallas. The games have been famously unpredictable, though OU coach Brent Venables has gotten his butt roast handed to him in blowout fashion three times in four years since taking over. ’Horns, 24-13.
Stanford (+39½) at No. 3 Notre Dame (2:30 p.m., NBC 5, 780-AM): Have I mentioned Stanford lost 57-3 at Wake Forest last time out? Seems relevant. Irish by merely 38.
No. 21 UCLA (+11½) at No. 13 Oregon (2:30 p.m., CBS 2): The unbeaten Bruins might be the most improved team in the Big Ten. Coach Bob Chesney didn’t just fall off the Curt Cignetti tree; he’s legit crushing it right now. But beating the Ducks in their home pond? That would be completely next-level. Ducks, 38-31.
No. 2 Georgia (+1½) at No. 6 Alabama (6:30 p.m., ABC 7): The Big Ten has been the biggest bopper the last few years, but the SEC might be better this time and, either way, this clash is hotter than two bobcats in a burlap sack. Georgia’s on my mind, 31-27.
My favorite favorite: No. 7 Indiana (-7) at Nebraska (11 a.m., Fox 32): I’d tell you how long it has been since Nebraska beat a ranked opponent, but you wouldn’t believe me. What does that leave for us to talk about? Fine — 0-for-31 over 10-plus years. Hoosiers make it 0-for-32.
My favorite underdog: No. 19 USC (+1½) at Penn State (6:30 p.m., NBC 5): Matt Campbell’s Nittany Lions “lack identity across the board,” the first-year coach said so himself this week. Trojans prove him right.
Last week: 5-1 straight-up, 5-1 against the spread.
Season to date: 27-9 straight-up, 18-18 against the spread.