The worst-case scenario, albeit also the most likely one, unfolded for the Blackhawks on Tuesday in the NHL Draft Lottery.
The Hawks fell to the No. 4 overall pick, their lowest slot in four years. They weren’t able to cash in on 13.5% and 14.1% chances of winning the No. 1 or No. 2 picks, respectively.
The Maple Leafs jumped over them for No. 1, and the Sharks — their rebuilding counterparts — jumped over them for No. 2. That pushed the last-place Canucks down to No. 3.
Hawks general manager Kyle Davidson joked that they’ll “compete the set” of top draft selections in his tenure, having picked No. 1, then No. 2, then No. 3 and now No. 4 over the last four years. They hope to not be in this range again next year or anytime afterward.
“If you asked me a couple days ago how many players could be in contention…I probably could’ve put five or six guys into the mix,” Davidson said. “We just have to wait and see who’s on the board. There’s a little more uncertainty there. But we’re going to get a good piece.”
Come draft day June 26, Davidson may end up choosing within a large group of defensemen including Chase Reid, Keaton Verhoeff, Carson Carels and Alberts Smits.
He likely won’t have a shot at top forward prospects Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg, although the lottery wins by the Leafs and Sharks — two teams who need defensive help more than offensive help — could inject some intrigue into that discussion.
One forward who could be in play for No. 4 is center Caleb Malhotra, who he has surged up public rankings lately due to a productive playoff run for the OHL’s Brantford Bulldogs. That’s team the Hawks watch closely because 2024 first-round pick Marek Vanacker also plays for them.
But Malhotra’s dad, Manny, is the Canucks’ AHL coach, and the Canucks are reportedly very interested in him. So he might not even make it to the Hawks at No. 4.
Reid, a Michigan State commit, is a dynamic offensive defenseman who has emerged as arguably the top player at that position. Verhoeff, a North Dakota freshman, is a stout defensive defenseman. Carels and Smits fall between them on that spectrum but aren’t quite as hyped.
It’s also possible the Hawks could trade the pick for an established NHL player. Davidson said he’s “open to talking to anyone about anything,” but he added it’s “pretty rare that those kinds of picks are traded.”
The Hawks own eight total picks, including three in the second round, so there’s much planning to do. Davidson will begin meeting with amateur scouting director Mike Doneghey and his staff of scouts next week. He will also meet with tons of prospects during the NHL combine May 31-June 6 in Buffalo.
Davidson said he’s “more patient” now than he used to be about the timeline for finalizing their internal draft rankings.
“You understand how much time you actually have and that you don’t need all the answers to the test in April,” he said. “You’ve got until June, so you take it to June to turn over every stone and watch every piece of video and pore back over information.
“It’s an exciting part of the process, not only for myself but for the scouts. We ask them to come in and pitch us on the players who they love. In a way, you’re asking them to take guys they’ve seen all years and be salesmen on behalf of a player or someone they’re really passionate about.”
Note: Connor Bedard won’t play for Canada in the world championships this spring in order to rest and strengthen his right shoulder, which he injured in December. Davidson said the Hawks support Bedard’s decision and hope “he has another offseason like he did last year.”