Almost three years ago today, Democratic Rep. Pete Aguilar predicted that control of the U.S. House would come down to California. Fast forward, Aguilar’s prediction is again relevant, as there are a number of districts where Republicans remain more competitive than many would have assumed.
Further, a handful of key general elections between two Democrats will provide critical insight into the growing influence of the far-left, progressive movement, fresh off high-profile wins in New York City and Colorado.
When Gov. Gavin Newsom sought to neutralize the advantage Republicans secured from Texas’ redistricting, virtually all competitive House districts in the Golden State were eliminated.
However, in some districts, Republicans have a genuine shot at holding on to their seats, potentially mitigating the original five seats Proposition 50 was designed to secure.
For example, the race to replace Darrell Issa in the 48th features Republican Jim Desmond, who is competitive in a district with a similarly small Democratic advantage. Desmond and another Republican received a combined 48% of the vote in the primary.
While these races may well determine which party controls the House, a number of all-Democrat general elections figure to be just as interesting for what they say about the larger Democratic Party.
Specifically, the contests in the 7th, 11th, and 14th districts will give clues as to whether California Democrats follow those in New York and Colorado further left, or if moderates find a way to prevail.
To be sure, the far-left has been ascendant of late throughout the country, sparking a conversation about whether they will drag the whole party left and how this new crop of politicians will co-exist with moderates.
At the same time, the far-left’s recent success has raised serious questions about the impact it will have on Democrats’ electoral viability.
Put another way, progressives may be popular in primaries, but will they hurt the Democratic Party’s “brand” with national voters?
Consider the race to succeed Nancy Pelosi – where state Sen. Scott Wiener will face Supervisor Connie Chan.
Chan, a staunch critic of Israel in her own right, may win solely because she is a Democrat running without specific baggage that Wiener is – he is Jewish.
Wiener made headlines recently when the very liberal state senator was harassed and eventually kicked out of San Francisco’s annual Trans march. A prominent advocate for LGBTQ rights, Wiener, who is Jewish, was accused of “supporting genocide in Gaza” and berated. This comes even though Wiener has bent the knee to the far-left on Israel.
That incident also follows Rep. Dan Goldman in New York City, who lost his primary just days after a local coffee shop posted on Instagram that they will refuse to serve him because of supposed support for Israel.
Moreover, it comes on the heels of Darializa Avila Chevalier and Melat Kiros winning their primaries in New York City and Colorado, respectively.
Chevalier has long denied Israel’s right to exist while Kiros made headlines for denying that the deadly 2025 firebombing attack on a group of Jews rallying for the release of hostages in Gaza had antisemitic motives.
Taken together, it’s clear that Israel is becoming a litmus test for Democratic primaries, and nobody, not even Jewish candidates who stridently oppose Israel’s government or its actions in Gaza can be considered safe.
In the Bay Area, disgraced former Rep. Eric Swalwell’s seat in the 14th district will also shed some light on the direction of the Democratic Party. Aisha Wahab, a state senator supported by the controversial Council on American-Islamic Relations is facing Melissa Hernandez, a former local mayor.
For her part, Hernandez is backed by establishment-leaning groups, but she faces an uphill battle. Wahab – who more than doubled Hernandez’s support in the primaries (38% to 17%) also has roughly 3 times more cash on hand.
Lastly, the 7th district features an extremely interesting race. Incumbent Democratic Rep. Doris Matsui will, for the first time in her two-decade career, have a formidable challenge from progressive Mai Vang.
Vang, a city council member, has made news for “boasting about refusing to say the Pledge of Allegiance” and “routinely” turning her back on the American flag during official meetings. And yet, in spite of those actions, Vang finished two points ahead of Matsui in the primary, setting up what should be a hotly contested race.
California’s reputation as the bluest of blue states masks the extremely important role it played of late in determining control of the House. Should Republicans be able to neutralize Newsom’s redistricting, that would almost certainly keep the House in GOP hands.
Perhaps even more important, however, is what the all-Democrat races reveal about the state of the Democratic Party. Will moderates show up in sufficient numbers to blunt the far-left’s rise?
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.