As the Denver Nuggets enter the Western Conference playoffs for the sixth consecutive season, a breakdown of their first-round rematch against the Los Angeles Lakers:
Who has the edge?
Guards: D’Angelo Russell was a defensive liability in the Western Conference Finals last season, and his offense seemed to suffer from it. The Nuggets, namely Bruce Brown, played him off the floor. An 18-point-per-game scorer reached double figures in only one of the four games, piling extra responsibility on Austin Reaves’ shoulders. This season, Reaves’ 3-point shooting dropped three percentage points, but Russell’s improved to 41.5%. He was the unheralded MVP of the Lakers’ play-in victory over New Orleans. If the Nuggets can close out strong to him and expose him again at the defensive end, they’ll tilt the series. The best news for Denver: Jamal Murray is a matchup problem for the Lakers, and it showed last year. The Nuggets won his minutes by 11.6 points per 100 possessions in the 2023 series, an even better net rating than Nikola Jokic’s minutes yielded. Neither Russell nor Reaves should have an answer defensively for Murray. Edge: Nuggets.
Wings: After Game 3 in Los Angeles, LeBron James will have played an entire 82-game season’s worth of first-round playoff games in his career. He is 62-17 so far, and in the 16 first-round series he has been a part of, he has advanced 15 times. James’ defense has taken an understandable dive with age, but he’s still defying categorization (Is he a wing? Or a big?) as the engine of a Los Angeles offense that ranked sixth in the NBA over the last 15 games of the regular season. At 39, he has produced the best jump-shooting campaign of his Hall of Fame career at 41% beyond the arc. Aaron Gordon, doubling as Denver’s backup center, will be James’ primary defender, but the Nuggets have other strong wing defenders they can throw at him, from Peyton Watson to Christian Braun. Los Angeles would likely rather get Michael Porter Jr. or Murray switched onto James as often as possible. Edge: Lakers.
Bigs: How many minutes at a time can the Lakers depend on Anthony Davis to guard Nikola Jokic straight up, before they decide they need to mix up coverages? On paper, the post matchup at the center of this series is as epic as it’s ever been: Davis is a deserving Defensive Player of the Year candidate on an otherwise defensively flawed team. Jokic represents the synthesis of power and finesse on offense. But recent evidence reveals this showdown to be more skewed than it should be. In Denver’s ongoing eight-game win streak against the Lakers, Jokic is averaging 26.6 points (54.2% from the floor), 14.4 rebounds and 11.3 assists. In short: The Lakers aren’t taking away his scoring or facilitating. They can experiment with gimmicky coverages all they want (see: Davis roams the court while Rui Hachimura is Jokic’s primary), but those only tend to work for so long before Jokic finds a solution. Eventually, if Los Angeles wants to conquer the champs, Davis needs to hold up mano-a-mano against Jokic and match his production. Edge: Nuggets.
Bench: Reggie Jackson and Spencer Dinwiddie probably cancel each other out. Christian Braun and Peyton Watson are inconsistent, but Taurean Prince and Gabe Vincent shouldn’t be striking much fear into them. The Pelicans would have been a problem in this area. They feature a top-three bench in the NBA. But the Lakers and Nuggets both typically lose their bench minutes, so the second units should be fairly negligible in determining the outcome of the series. And for Denver, when Jokic isn’t on the floor, negligible is a win. Edge: Nuggets.
Coaching: There was a prolonged moment this season when Darvin Ham was rumored to be on the hot seat. Maybe he still is. Either way, the ground is firm beneath Michael Malone’s feet for a reason. In Denver’s Game 82 last week, he moved past George Karl to become the second-winningest regular-season coach in franchise history. Edge: Nuggets.
— Bennett Durando, The Denver Post
Five things to watch
1. No Fake Show: Before the Lakers’ play-in matchup at New Orleans, a few L.A. media members suggested the team should throw the game in order to avoid a first-round matchup with the Nuggets. Unsurprisingly, that idea was emphatically rejected in the Lakers locker room. After taking down the Pelicans to clinch a playoff rematch, forward Anthony David declared they are “not ducking the smoke.” Head coach Darvin Ham castigated the “insane asylum sources” who dared suggest such a scheme. And LeBron James declared, “It’s about just winning.” While the Lakers might not be afraid, one thing is crystal clear: The Nuggets are living rent-free in Lakers Nation’s heads.
2. One-sided rivalry: Of course, the Southland has good reason to want no part of the Nuggets. The main one: The defending champs are going on eight straight wins against the Lakers, including all three of this year’s regular-season matchups, last spring’s four-game sweep in the Western Conference Finals and a 122-109 home win in early January 2023. This year’s defeats have been especially troublesome for the LakeShow, given that two came in L.A. on the nights Kobe Bryant’s statue was unveiled and LeBron James passed 40,000 career points. As for the third? That was Ring Night at Ball Arena.
3. Monitoring Jamal: The one dark cloud looming over Denver’s title defense: Jamal Murray’s health. The veteran guard missed seven straight games near the end of the regular season and 23 total this season due to multiple leg injuries. The Nuggets were 13-10 in those games, underscoring a reality already made clear the two previous postseasons when he was sidelined by an ACL tear: The Nuggets need Murray to win a title. He’s been as good as ever this season with career-high averages in points (21.2) and assists (6.5), and career-best shooting numbers (48.1% overall, 42.5% from 3). Asked about Murray’s availability earlier this week, head coach Michael Malone expressed little worry: “Jamal is a warrior; he’ll be ready to go.”
4. Marking D-Lo: Last spring, Lakers guard D’Angelo Russell got played off the floor in the conference finals. A year later, he was L.A.’s savior against New Orleans in the play-in round with five 3s, including a corner 3 in the waning minutes that all but sealed the win. The performance continued what’s been something of a renaissance season for Russell, who shot a career-best 41.5% from 3 while averaging 18.0 points and 6.3 assists. If the Nuggets are going to blitz the Lakers’ screens as they’ve done in the past, this much is known: They cannot afford to leave Russell unattended.
5. Bench rotation: Nuggets coach Michael Malone has been relatively predictable with his substitution patterns throughout the second half of the season, with Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, Reggie Jackson and Justin Holiday regular contributors. Starters’ minutes almost always rise in the postseason, however, leading to shrinking opportunities for the reserves. That was the case last year for Malone, who limited himself to three subs during Denver’s title run. If that’s the case again, who’s the odd man out?
— Matt Schubert, The Denver Post
Staff Predictions
Bennett Durando, Nuggets beat writer: I’m inclined to warn this might not be as lopsided as last year, when LeBron James appeared to be running out of gas toward the end of every game, having already shepherded the underdog Lakers through multiple rounds. The circumstances are more aligned in their favor this time. But there’s just no getting around the fact that Denver is the better team with the better player. It’ll end in the same building. Nuggets in six.
Related Articles
Nikola Jokic on Nuggets-Lakers playoff rematch: “Strategy-wise, I think it’s gonna be really interesting”
Nuggets Podcast: A Lakers rematch and the path to back-to-back NBA championships in Denver
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers playoff series schedule: Game times, TV
Nuggets to rematch Los Angeles Lakers, LeBron James in first-round playoff series
Nuggets hosting playoff pep rally on Wednesday at McGregor Square
Sean Keeler, sports columnist: Let’s make this simple — if D’Angelo Russell is great, the Nuggets are in trouble. Bron’s gonna Bron. AD’s gonna AD. This thing probably comes down to roster spots 3-7, and the Nuggs still win that matchup 98 times out of 100. Now if Russell catches fire? Clutch those rosary beads. History says he won’t, though: Over the Lakers guard’s last six games vs. Denver, he’s shooting 22.2% on treys (6 of 27) and 35.7% from the floor (20 of 56). The worse seed in the history of playoff meetings between the Nuggs-Lakers has never won a series. If you don’t trust your eyes, trust the math. In this case, trust both. Nuggets in six.
Ryan McFadden, sports reporter: Even though the Lakers are underdogs, it’s hard to see Denver sweeping them again. Los Angeles has played solid lately, winning seven of its last nine, including a victory over the Pelicans in the play-in round. Even at the age of 39, James is playing elite basketball. At the same time, it’s hard to bet against Nikola Jokic and the benefit of home-court advantage. It’ll will be interesting to see how Peyton Watson handles a bigger role in this year’s postseason, but I have full confidence in Denver taking care of business in the first round. Nuggets in five.
Troy Renck, sports columnist: Nuggets in three. Is that a thing? The Lakers figured they would have to face the Nuggets at some point, so why not in the first round when LeBron James and Anthony Davis are fresh? The Lakers can compete with the Nuggets. They just can’t beat the Nuggets. The only chance of an upset is if D’Angelo Russell, who was a liability vs. Denver last postseason, makes more big shots than Tom Cruise in “Cocktail.” He’s good. He’s not that good. Nuggets in five.
Matt Schubert, sports editor: It’s hard to argue against eight straight Nuggets wins vs. the Lakers, Jamal Murray (29.7 points, 6.6 assists, 5.9 rebounds) shooting laser beams out of his eyes during said streak, or (soon to be) three MVPs in four seasons for Nikola Jokic. It’s also hard to argue against LeBron James’ 15-1 series record in the first round, King James and Anthony Davis getting the benefit of more rest in the spread-out opening round, and D’Angelo Russell’s recent star turn on the perimeter. Then again, maybe it isn’t. Nuggets in five.
Want more Nuggets news? Sign up for the Nuggets Insider to get all our NBA analysis.