Dan Shapiro, former U.S. Ambassador to Israel (2011-2017) and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East (2024), responded to an Axios report about the Trump administration’s belief that “it’s getting close to an agreement with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war and set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations.”
Shapiro wrote: “What’s behind the move to wrap up the war this week on these terms, which fall well short of the original war goals? China. Or, more specifically, Trump’s upcoming visit to Beijing on May 14-15. If the war is ongoing or even escalating, it puts Trump in a constrained position with Xi Jinping.”
What’s behind the move to wrap up the war this week on these terms, which fall well short of the original war goals? China. Or, more specifically, Trump’s upcoming visit to Beijing on May 14-15. If the war is ongoing or even escalating, it puts Trump in a constrained position… https://t.co/zvrPNoLOPR
— Dan Shapiro (@DanielBShapiro) May 6, 2026
Shapiro, who also served as senior director for the Middle East and North Africa on the National Security Council (NSC), and was appointed by President Biden as a special liaison to Israel on Iran, added: “Overall, Trump’s position and leverage at the summit is considerably weaker if he goes to Beijing with the war still unsettled, or even with renewed escalation. And the Iranians know that. So they are whittling down the terms to end the war to something much more modest than what Trump originally envisioned.”
Former U.S. Congressman Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) replied to Shapiro: “So we’re capitulating so Trump can be more comfortable with China.”
[NOTE: In March, The Financial Times reported that “Donald Trump said he could delay his planned summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping if Beijing doesn’t help unblock the Strait of Hormuz.” The publication cited its own interview with the American president as a source. At that time, Trump’s Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent seemed to contradict Trump’s assertion, telling CNBC of the forthcoming Trump/Xi meeting: “If the meetings are delayed, it wouldn’t be delayed because the president demanded that China police the Strait of Hormuz.” Bessent added, “If the meeting, for some reason, is rescheduled, it would be rescheduled because of logistics.”]