Contract talks between the Blackhawks and Connor Bedard might finally be picking up.
The two sides have now exchanged numbers and are actively negotiating, agent Don Meehan said Monday.
There’s still a long way to go until a new contract gets finalized, and there are many questions to answer — the most prominent being the contract’s length. Will Bedard agree to a maximum-length eight-year term? Or will he push for a medium-length four- or five-year deal, which would set him up for a potentially bigger payday in his prime?
The salary-cap hit is also important, of course, even though it’s going to be a massive number no matter what. Bedard, still almost a month away from his 21st birthday, is the Hawks’ franchise cornerstone and will be paid accordingly.
Come July 1 next week, Bedard’s entry-level contract will expire. At that point, he will be technically eligible to sign an offer sheet with another team, although he’s very unlikely to do so and the Hawks would certainly match any offer.
The same can be said about a number of other high-profile RFAs around the NHL this summer. Unlike this historically awful cast of unrestricted free-agent forwards, the RFA forward class is loaded.
Bedard, Ducks center Leo Carlsson and Blue Jackets center Adam Fantilli — the top three picks from the 2023 draft — headline it. Ducks winger Cutter Gauthier (fifth overall in 2022) and Sabres winger Zach Benson (13th in 2023) are just one step below.
AFP Analytics’ projections for those five forwards’ cap hits, assuming they all sign long-term deals, are $12.3 million for Bedard, $11.4 million for Carlsson, $10 million for Fantilli, $8.8 million for Gauthier and $7 million for Benson.
But given that’s almost certainly an underestimate for Bedard, it might be underestimating the other deals, too. In this skyrocketing salary-cap environment, player values are rising faster than models can recalibrate.
Each forward might also be waiting for each other to set the market. Jackets general manager Don Waddell recently told Mark Scheig of The Hockey Writers that Fantilli, for one, is seemingly “waiting to see what happens” in the other three cases. Waddell added that “nobody wants to go first.”
For instance, if Carlsson — who recorded 67 points in 70 games last season — signs for $12 million, that could give Bedard — who recorded 75 points in 69 games with a weaker supporting cast — more ammunition to demand, say, $13-15 million.
Then there’s another section of the loaded RFA forward class comprised of players in their mid-20s coming off their second contracts.
That group’s relative proximity to unrestricted status gives them more leverage, and the fact several of them — including Stars wingers Jason Robertson and Mavrik Bourque and Golden Knights winger Pavel Dorofeyev — play for tight-against-the-cap contenders adds to the intrigue.
Other notable older RFAs include Flyers center Trevor Zegras, Capitals center Connor McMichael and Jackets center Cole Sillinger.
There have been just two offer sheets signed over the last four years, but that trend might finally change this summer. The situation feels ripe for it.
Those offer sheets probably won’t come from the Hawks, though, since offer-sheet compensation includes only a team’s own draft picks, whereas the Hawks would prefer to work out a trade incorporating the Oilers and Panthers’ 2027 first-round picks that they own.
Acquiring Robertson, the NHL’s ninth-leading scorer over the last four seasons combined, remains a dream scenario for the Hawks. The Stars might not be willing to pay Robertson more than $12 million, but the Hawks could and should.
There are a lot of reasons why it likely won’t happen — one being the Stars would prefer established NHL players over picks and prospects in return — but Hawks GM Kyle Davidson nevertheless needs to do everything he can to try to make it happen.