How Iran’s attack on Israel could play into Putin’s hands

Vladimir Putin is taking advantage of the growing tensions in the Middle East (Picture: Getty)

A big winner from the retaliatory military attacks between Israel and Iran is Vladimir Putin, experts have said.

Warnings of a widening conflict in the Middle East have proven true as Iran called Benjamin Netanyahu’s bluff after the Israeli prime minister incinerated the consulate in Syria.

Russia – an ally of Iran – has refrained from criticising the strike on the Golan and the Negev regions, but warned against further escalation.

Iran has been instrumental in the Kremlin’s pursuit of escalation, both in its war in Ukraine, supplying Shahed drones, and escalating tensions in the region.

Israel’s military displays what they say is an Iranian ballistic missile which they retrieved from the Dead Sea (Picture: Reuters)

Netanyahu has also done its fair share to help by not imposing financial sanctions on Russia and refusing Volodymyr Zelensky’s pleas for military aid.

Baraa Shiban, associate fellow with the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, told Metro.co.uk that Russia is only benefiting from the Iran-Israel conflict.

He said: ‘Russia is trying to appeal to the wider Arab community, utilising the high number of civilian casualties in Gaza.

‘We have seen this multiple times – they try to draw similarities between what they are facing, a hostile West, similar to what Israel and its allies are doing to the Palestinians.

How Israel could attack Iran (Picture: Metro.co.uk)

‘The Kremlin wants to draw Arabs closer and get their sympathy. It is convenient for them to divide between West and East. It does not cost much. Russia is not involved in the fighting, it does not need to send any weapons or troops, but it can play the political card.

‘It helps them, because for the first time people are not talking about the plight of Ukrainians, but about Palestinians in Gaza.’

Mr Shiban added that Russia’s partnership with Iran will continue to flourish long term as they both gain from ‘exhausting’ Western powers.

He also warned that as long as Israel’s assault on Palestinians in Gaza continues, there is the prospect of the conflict spilling over into other countries.

Iranians hold signs and a portrait of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a celebration following Iran’s missile attack on Israel (Picture: AFP)

‘This is not a conflict that will go away anytime soon. Iran is involved in multiple battlefronts. It is backing multiple groups,’ the expert said.

‘This is again something Iran wants to do long-term. And this is why it is avoiding direct confrontation.

‘The approach of the Iranians has always been to drag it out as long as possible and invest in proxies like Yemen’s Houthis.’

Bronwen Maddox, director of Chatham House think tank, described the Russian leader as a ‘big winner’ after the escalation of the conflict as it draws ‘attention away from the real trouble that Ukraine is in this year’.

Hanna Notte, a senior associate at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, also said that the Middle East entering ‘uncharted territory, short of a full-blown war’ is the best that can happen to Putin now.

Commenting on what could happen next, Ms Maddox said: ‘This is a big step into more danger in that Iran has for the first time tried to attack Israel directly. 

‘Iran has been causing all kinds of destabilisation in the region, supporting Hamas who carried out the October 7 attacks, supporting Hezbollah in the north, supporting the Houthis who are attacking the Red Sea from one side.

‘It is causing all kinds of trouble and enjoying the strain on Israel’s international reputation that has followed the conflict in Gaza. 

‘Israel had attacked Iran’s embassy in Syria which is treated under international law as a piece of your own soil and so Iran is saying Israel attacked its soil.

‘The question is what Israel does now. If Israel doesn’t respond military, and I very much hope that is the case because then you really do have an escalation, then we may be in a position where countries can put more pressure on Israel, and something is done about the humanitarian crisis there.’ 

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