HOUSTON – The biggest potential advantage for the Cleveland Guardians as they chase the White Sox in the American League Central standings is starting pitching.
With their pitching development engine, the Guardians once more have a deep rotation led by All-Star rookie Parker Messick. The White Sox’ top pitching prospects have been getting a lesson in how development isn’t linear, and the club has spent the summer piecing their rotation together with bullpen games and openers.
Opening day starter Shane Smith is working in relief now. Of their four-best pitching prospects, only Hagen Smith is in the majors and is also in the bullpen. The biggest potential source of stability for the Sox rotation down the stretch was just activated off the injured list in Davis Martin, who issued a reminder of such with 5 2/3 scoreless innings Wednesday night against the Astros.
The best argument in favor of Martin’s ability to suddenly become a rotation anchor in the final month is that he’s done it before–this season. Even the yeoman back-end starter version of Martin from years past would be a boost for the Sox. But as he carried a 2.00 ERA and 27% strikeout rate through Memorial Day this year, Martin looked bound for an All-Star appearance and like someone who could start a playoff game.
“He was really suppressing damage,” said Sox senior advisor to pitching Brian Bannister. “I think it’s his ability to diversify his pitches to hit different parts of the zone with different shapes.”
At his best, the 29-year-old right-hander’s command of a six-pitch mix lends him an improvisational style. In an age of hyper-intentional gameplanning, Martin is the rare starter who is really out there reading swings and pitching with guile to lift his results above his pure stuff.
Even as his performance wavered, and he entered Wednesday night with a 7.06 ERA since June 1, the White Sox have expressed confidence they have the video and biomechanical information to return Martin to his baselines.
“With him and with all the guys, we know what good looks like,” said pitching coach Zach Bove.
Almost every pitcher has some weaknesses baked into their strengths, and Martin is no different. The arm action that gives him great feel for spinning breaking balls and even enables his wonky kick-changeup, also asks a lot from his body over the long haul.
“He kind of drops his arm down and it’s a very arm-heavy delivery, so there’s definitely an element of fatigue,” Bannister told the Sun-Times. “You see that in just the velocities.”
Per FanGraphs, Martin averaged 94.2 mph on his four-seam fastball through May, and 93.6 mph since. That’s a real dip, but also small enough for Martin and the Sox to focus more on command. When he slouches in his posture on the mound, his arm will dip alongside it and suddenly his six-pitch mix shrinks to trying to groove fastballs to get back in the count. When he began overcorrecting to the point of leaning backwards, it was no good either.
“Just one little change, and then it just keeps snowballing,” Martin said. “You just think everything’s going fine, and then all of a sudden you’re just out of luck. Over the course of 162 games, that happens.”
Fittingly, the Sox seized upon Martin developing a middle finger blister just as his results reached their nadir as an opportunity for both a rest and reset. He only had a single five-inning Triple-A rehab outing, but the club saw proof of concept.
“The delivery stuff that he had been working on when he was on IL, it showed out,” said Bove.
In striking out three and walking just one on Wednesday, touching 96 mph, and cutting through the heart of the Houston batting order to wriggle out of a third-inning jam that saw runners at the corners with no one out, Martin furthered his case that he can be the starter the Sox need.