Sean Keeler: I’m telling ya, there’s a silver lining to the Nuggets losing the inside track on the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, my friend. Actually, there’s three. First, it means Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray would avoid a potential first-round matchup with the Kings, who beat the Nuggets three out of four times during the regular season. Second, it gets them on the opposite site of the bracket from the Clippers (2-2 vs. Denver), who’ve beaten the Nuggs twice over their last two meetings. And third, and most importantly, it puts them potentially in the path of the matchup both the team and Nuggets faithful probably want to see the most — LeBron James and the Lakers. Although I’m curious: Which potential Western Conference opponent do you think could be trickiest for the Nuggs to navigate on their road to a repeat NBA title? And why?
Troy Renck: The playoffs are different. They are not as predictable as a Hallmark movie. Weird stuff happens. Injuries. Bad calls. Hostility. Along those lines, I am thinking outside the lane for my pick. I view the Dallas Mavericks as the biggest threat to the Nuggets in the Western Conference. The Mavericks have quietly been the league’s best team over the last month, posting a 13-3 record. They feature an MVP candidate in Luka Doncic — my money is on him to win the award next season — and mercurial Kyrie Irving, who is no longer the Kanye West of hoops, letting his handles and 3s define his play again. Doncic, like Jokic, is inevitable offensively, averaging 33.9 points, 9.2 rebounds and 9.8 assists per game. He makes life exhausting guarding him, and the Mavs’ much-improved defense is concerning. The Mavs face a joust with the Clippers, but I don’t view them as favorably as others because of age and injuries.
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Keeler: Logic would dictate the Thunder, given how OKC has proven over the last two years that they’re not intimidated by Ball Arena or by having to bang with the Joker at altitude for 48 (if not more) minutes. But they’re also the youngest team (average age: 23.9) to ever clinch a 1 seed in a modern postseason bracket. A healthy Wolves bench with Naz Reid and Monte Morris makes Minnesota tricky, but I’m not convinced the Pups can win on Chopper Circle when it counts. The Suns are weird, but still top-heavy enough to be dangerous. All that being said, I’d probably elevate the Clippers as a speed bump, especially if Kawhi Leonard’s knee holds up, and for one reason in particular: scoring off the bench. The combo of Norman Powell and Russell Westbrook over their last three games vs. Denver have combined for an average of 24.3 points per game. And as you know, the quickest path to try and beat the Nuggets at home, away or on Mars, is to win the non-Jokic minutes. And to win them handily. On paper, the Clips could pull that trick off as well as anybody.
Renck: Your belief in the PaperClips is fascinating. It’s like you jumped into the Hot Tub Time Machine. History tells us the Thunder is one year away from turning into a playoff team that will be about as fun to face as bites from 1,000 fire ants. The T-Wolves roll into the postseason with good karma as Alex Rodriguez’s bid to buy the team fizzled. Nobody brings more bad mojo to a title contender like A-Fraud. Your point about the bench is valid. Minnesota and the Clippers match up well vs. Denver in reserve minutes. I don’t believe it will matter early. But a Western Conference Finals vs. the Mavericks will test Jokic. Quality minutes from Aaron Gordon at the five, and Peyton Watson will grow in significance as the postseason advances.
Keeler: Mind you, we’re also presuming the Clippers get past the Mavs in a nasty 4-5 series right out of the chute. And the Nuggets can say they don’t care if they get the Pelicans or Lakers first, but who are we kidding? They’d rather see LeBron and company. Anthony Davis’ back is acting up, and the Lake Show ain’t going anywhere if it’s down to King James and The Pips. Besides, who wouldn’t want to see eight wins in a row turn into 12? I’ll tell you: ESPN execs and Lakers fans. Heck, some in Laker Nation are so freaked about getting rolled by the Nuggets again that bloggers have stumped for them to surreptitiously throw the New Orleans game just to avoid Murray’s side of the bracket. That’s a plot twist M. Night Shyamalan would laugh out of the room.
Renck: Honestly, the Lakers are more dangerous early than late because LeBron James and Anthony Davis will be fresh. Los Angeles has shown it can compete with Denver. But the Lakers have not shown they can beat Denver. They have dropped eight straight to the Nuggets. Seeing the Nuggets dispatch the Lakers brings joy to those of us Colorado natives who grew up watching Denver’s great teams dissolve against Magic Johnson, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and James Worthy. But the playoffs are about finding the path of least resistance. The Nuggets are not going 16-4 in this postseason. Root for a matchup with the Pelicans, allowing the Nuggets to save some battery life to outlast the Mavs in an old-fashioned, throw-down-the-sawdust shootout.
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