Trump has promised peace with Iran 37 times – when do we call his bluff?

Donald Trump is known for his broken promises. In the almost three months that the US and Israel have been at war with Iran, he’s promised a deal is close 37 times.

Social media posts, phone calls, and official statements to the press have all seen the US President promise that peace is soon to come – but to no avail.

Mediators, led predominantly by Pakistan, have been trying for weeks to get a deal across the line, but both Iran and the US have taken hard-line positions.

Dr Katayoun Shahandeh from the University of London told Metro: ‘There is an old saying: fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.’

At some point, the world needs to stop treating Trump’s statements as diplomatic breakthroughs and see them for what they are, Dr Shahandeh argues: political theatre.

‘Trump is a master of announcing success before it exists. He has always preferred the optics of deal-making to the slow, difficult work of diplomacy,’ she added.

‘When he says a deal with Iran is close, the question is not simply whether he believes it. The question is, who pays the price when that claim collapses? The answer is, again and again, the Iranian people.’

What will it take to actually make a deal?

Even as peace deals stall and a ceasefire hangs in the balance, a deal between Iran, Israel and the US is not impossible.

‘Iran is a rational political actor, even when its leadership behaves brutally towards its own population. Tehran understands leverage. It understands survival. It understands that time, geography, regional alliances and strategic patience can be more powerful than spectacle,’ Dr Shahandeh said.

But if a deal is to sustain, it requires more than blind confidence – rather, trust, guarantees and recognition. Israel’s recently renewed strikes against Iran have made the situation more difficult.

Iran and the US both have different demands. US wants to see Iran give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which is believed still to be entombed in the country after American air strikes in the 12-day war in 2025.

But Iran is refusing that and demanding relief from sanctions. It also wants the release of frozen assets even before a final agreement is in place, something rejected by Trump.

‘Every escalation allows the Islamic Republic to present itself as defender of the nation, even while it represses the very citizens it claims to protect,’ she added.

The Iranian people are the true losers in this game of limbo – trapped between an authoritarian state and outside powers which treat them as collateral damage.

An entire region is facing the consequences as well. Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Palestine, Israel and other Gulf nations are facing a potential future of further conflict.

‘The greatest losers will not be Trump, Netanyahu, or Iran’s ruling elite. They will be the Iranian people: the women, students, workers, artists, dissidents and families who have already sacrificed too much,’ Dr Shahandeh said.

‘They deserve a future that is not negotiated through their suffering.’

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