Were 2026 Cubs ‘drawn up’ to be a World Series team? If so, it’s hard to see it

SAN DIEGO — A tall, slender, blue-clad Cubs supporter stepped onto an elevator headed down from the suite level after watching his favorite team get demolished 8-0 by the Padres in Game 1 of a best-of-three wild-card series at Petco Park.

Wearing a grim expression, he shook his head and offered, “Well, that’s not how you draw it up.”

A gaggle of reporters on their way down to the home and visiting clubhouses seemed to appreciate the well-delivered deadpan.

Comedic stylings notwithstanding, Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts was exactly right — and in more ways than one.

No, indeed, having Matthew Boyd surrender a home run to Fernando Tatis Jr. on his first pitch of the night wasn’t part of the game plan. Watching Tatis and Manny Machado whip a gold-towel-waving crowd into a thunderous frenzy before the Cubs even woke up and rubbed the regular season out of their eyes wasn’t high on the agenda. Cubs hitters flailing at balls out of the strike zone and making soft contact like it was their first swings of batting practice wasn’t on the ol’ to-do list.

Or as Cubs manager Craig Counsell perfectly put it, “They had a lot to cheer about tonight, and we didn’t give them anything to be quiet about.”

But even though Ricketts wasn’t getting at this and might disagree strongly with it, he spoke truth in another, broader sense: These Cubs probably aren’t how you draw up a true World Series contender.

Going back further than that, the Cubs probably haven’t been drawn up to win it all since Theo Epstein was in charge.

With the Cubs in a second straight postseason without there being a clear sense of a pitching rotation — who, when, why — it really drives home just how far we are from the 2016 scenario in which then-manager Joe Maddon, along with Epstein and then-general manager Jed Hoyer, decided to leave a 15-game winner, Jason Hammel, off the roster for every stage of the playoffs en route to a World Series championship.

When you have stone-cold aces Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta to throw at an opponent — any opponent — you know in your bones you can win. Kyle Hendricks was baseball’s ERA leader. John Lackey had won World Series-clinching games with both the Angels and the Red Sox.

Lackey was far from that team’s best starter, but he was a clear choice over Hammel because he’d been through the wars, still oozed fearlessness and was so respected. It’s oversimplifying it a bit, but he was that team’s Kevin Gausman, the been-there, done-that veteran the Cubs turned to Wednesday in a must-win Game 2 against the Padres. Only, Lackey’s October track record was better than Gausman’s, whose previous teams lost five of the last seven playoff games in which he started. Lackey surely would’ve been this Cubs team’s Game 1 guy.

Hoyer, now in charge, received a lot of credit for signing third baseman Alex Bregman, who had an outstanding first season with the Cubs, and for acquiring quality starters Gausman and Clay Holmes at the trade deadline. Hoyer also made a good trade for starter David Peterson in June, when the team was desperate for help.

But the Cubs went into the playoffs without a true ace or even a starter — any starter — in whom they could believe wholeheartedly. That’s not how you draw it up, nor is assembling a bullpen year after year guided by the conceit that the Cubs will make it work well just because they’re, you know, the Cubs. Hoyer need only see the electric, almost unhittable back end of the Padres’ bullpen for the way to draw it up.

There’s also the issue of player payroll, and on this front it’s always hard to know where blaming Ricketts alone should stop and assigning some of the blame to the conservative Hoyer should begin. Remember, this Cubs front office has made it clear its aim is to be good enough to get into the playoff field every year. Not to rip off 100 wins. Not to cut through the competition like a chain saw. Not to overtake the Brewers and win the division, whatever it takes. No, the Cubs just want to give themselves a chance because, gee whiz, anything can happen in October.

When Epstein was at the wheel, the Cubs simply spent more than they do now relative to the rest of the league. Four times from 2016 to 2020, Epstein’s last season, they ranked in the top five in payroll. On Hoyer’s watch, the highest any of the six teams have ranked in spending is seventh (in 2024 and 2026). If the Cubs don’t seem to be of World Series caliber to you, right there is one of the clearest reasons.

Maybe Ricketts believed in Epstein — a superstar exec — just a bit more. Maybe ownership got its World Series and lost the sense of urgency to do more than rake in revenue.

It’s hard to say.

But the rest isn’t hard to see.