Why did President Trump attack Iran on Feb. 28, betraying his decade-long pledge against “regime change” wars, splitting his MAGA base and damaging his presidency?
I wanted an answer from “Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump,” a new book by two New York Times reporters, Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan.
Contrary to what you might think, both reporters actually had a great deal of access to the president and his inner circle. Trump gave the authors numerous interviews, even as he was denouncing “the failing New York Times” and branding it “fake news.”
The authors also relied on hundreds of interviews with other staff members and allies, his almost daily performances in the Oval Office and his innumerable Truth Social posts. So although their establishment liberal bias sometimes shows through, their reporting is accurate.
The book begins with a jubilant Trump after his Nov. 5, 2024 election triumph. Except for a brief epilogue set two weeks after the war started, it ends on the afternoon of Feb. 27, 2026, as Trump makes the decision to strike, alongside Israel, the next morning.
Here I’ll focus on the months leading into the war.
On Feb. 11, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and then-Mossad Director David Barnea assured Trump an air campaign against Tehran would produce a revolution and “regime change.”
Vice President JD Vance, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine and other advisers warned the chances of success were slim. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth was gung-ho.
For months, close friend Tucker Carlson warned against it. So did Charlie Kirk, the charismatic young head of Turning Point USA and a Trump favorite who was assassinated on Sept. 10 of last year.
As always, Trump largely relied on Fox News and newspapers, including the Times, to inform his judgment. The book recounts that while he did read some reports, he also asked aides to do Google searches while sitting near him with their laptops. Not exactly the most diligent means of getting information.
The book highlights how Trump revels in power and violence. He’s a war voyeur. His staff often shows him videos of alleged drug boats being blown up, with bodies strewn across the Caribbean, of the Delta Force grabbing Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and of buildings and troops being destroyed in Iran.
So why did Trump attack Iran? Because it was his chance to become not just a great president, but a great man of history.
In the epilogue, Trump is sitting with Haberman and Swan after the war started. An aide brings copies of a two-page document written by an amateur historian. “He began reading it, reciting the names of some of history’s most powerful figures, explaining how each fell short of his own powers as U.S. president.”
Trump said, “They didn’t have airplanes, right? You couldn’t travel around.” The list: Alexander the Great, William the Conqueror, Genghis Khan, Attila the Hun, Tamerlane, Napoleon, Hitler and Mao. These leaders “maintained power through fear,” he said. “Who would ever do a thing like that?”
It’s an odd list. All those tyrants fought personally as soldiers. Trump got five draft deferments to avoid Vietnam War service.
The president’s lack of direct experience with war unfortunately comes together with his expansive view of his own powers.
In an interview in January, Trump was asked if there were any limits to his powers. “Of course there are,” he said. “My own moral code. My will. That’s the only thing that can stop me. I don’t need international law.”
It’s no wonder he ignored those trying to warn him against war.
Just before the attack on Iran, Carlson met with Trump several times to oppose the war. “I know you’re worried about it, but it’s going to be OK,” Trump said. Asked how he knew, he said, “Because it always is.”
What else besides changing the Iranian regime and transforming the entire Middle East would elevate him among the greats of history and avoid becoming a loudmouthed version of Jimmy Carter?
The June 17 Memorandum of Understanding with Iran has brought an uneasy peace. Trump predicted $100-per-barrel oil prices would “drop like a rock.” On July 6, Brent crude hit the mid-$70s per barrel.
If the tenuous peace holds, that could limit Republican losses in Congress in the Nov. 3 election. But as long as we have Trump in office, will he have any more wars? That’s what I worry about.
John Seiler is on the SCNG Editorial Board