Northwestern’s and Illinois’ longest shots of the season are here.
Yay?
Northwestern (+21) at No. 5 Indiana (7 p.m. Friday, Fox 32, 720-AM) looks a whole lot like a game the Wildcats can’t win. Illinois (+27½) at No. 7 Ohio State (11 a.m., Fox 32, 890-AM) seemingly shapes up likewise.
This is where money enters the conversation, because it has to.
A recent Athletic report put dollar estimates on the war chests for players at every Big Ten school. In ballpark terms, Ohio State ranked at the top of the conference in roster budget at around $50 million, with Indiana a couple of notches behind at closer to $40 million. Well down the list, in the low 20s — again, we’re talking millions — were the Wildcats and the Illini.
That’s still a heck of a lot of bread the lesser two programs are doling out, no doubt. But the discrepancies kind of put those three- and four-touchdown point spreads in perspective, don’t they?
“When [the NIL era started in 2021], I literally said, ‘Hey, if I’m within $2 million of Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State and Michigan, I’m good. Just let me go,” Illini coach Bret Bielema said this week. “When I’m within $25 million, I’m not so good.”
The economics of major college sports has become so extreme, it feels almost naive to size up some games in terms of X’s and O’s. But one supposes that’s why we’re all here, so — as I resist the urge to invoke the words “inevitable blowouts” — what’s going to happen on the field in these two contests?
Defending national champion Indiana has cake-walked through three games against North Texas, Howard and Western Kentucky by a combined score of 145-16. Transfer quarterback Josh Hoover has been flawless and transfer running back Turbo Richard explosive. Wideouts Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh — the latter a transfer, too — are as good a pair as the Wildcats will see. The Hoosiers’ defense is aggressive in a manner Bears fans might appreciate after seeing the relentless blitzing of the Vikings.
Sounds scary? It should.
The Wildcats (2-0) opened a lot of eyes last weekend in a 41-7 squashing of Colorado. They’re better than I thought they’d be. They might even have a little something for Penn State when the new Ryan Field opens next week. But back to reality: Hoosiers, 41-17.
As for the Illibuck Trophy game, have I mentioned the trophy is a wooden turtle? Would a trophy of a surfboard or a turkey club sandwich be any less apropos? But never mind that, back to the inevitable blow … oops, sorry.
The Buckeyes (2-1) haven’t quite reached ruthless-dream-killer mode yet, having lost by one point at Texas and not yet gotten their running game on track. But it’s coming. This is still a playoff team and still as towering a contender for the national championship as there is.
The Illini combo of QB Katin Houser and wideout Collin Dixon — who leads the nation with seven touchdown receptions — will make some noise. The first half might even be interesting. First quarter, at least?
If the Illini (2-1) have any pass rush to speak of, it better show up in a hurry. Otherwise, the deep shots from Julian Sayin to sensational receiver Jeremiah Smith will be like stealing candy from a baby turtle. Buckeyes, 38-14.
Jeremiah Smith still went off in Ohio State’s heartbreaking loss to Texas
8 REC, 164 YDS, 1 TD pic.twitter.com/bBYxw6eVwU
— Football Performances (@NFLPerformances) September 13, 2026
OTHER WEEK 4 PICKS
All games are Saturday unless otherwise noted.
No. 4 Ole Miss (+3½) at No. 21 Florida (2:30 p.m., ABC 7): What goes up — the Rebels after an incredibly cathartic revenge win against Lane Kiffin — must come down. Gators by seven.
No. 17 Iowa (+5½) at No. 18 Michigan (2:30 p.m., CBS 2): If you close your eyes and listen hard, you can hear the pads popping already. Wolverines, 20-13.
No. 23 Texas A&M (+8½) at No. 10 LSU (6:30 p.m., ABC 7): Not the mega-hyped event it promised to be before the Aggies lost to Kentucky and the Tigers lost to Ole Miss, but it won’t disappoint. Tigers, 37-34 (OT).
No. 20 Oregon (-3) at No. 12 USC (6:30 p.m., NBC 5): If the Ducks lose two weeks after their embarrassing effort at Oklahoma State, they’ll assume the title of Most Disappointing Team of 2026 and all but kiss the playoff goodbye before the end of September. Wow! Nah. Ducks, 34-30.
My favorite favorite: No. 1 Texas (-4) at No. 14 Tennessee (11 a.m., ABC 7): Have to roll with Longhorns QB Arch Manning in Uncle Peyton’s house. Why? As good as Vols QB Faizon Brandon has looked, he’s a freshman — and all it takes is one really bad freshman mistake.
My favorite underdog: Purdue (+28) vs. No. 3 Notre Dame (1 p.m., Peacock, 780-AM): Of course the Boilermakers can’t win this game, but they can score — Irish by not enough.
Last week: 5-3 straight-up, 3-5 against the spread.
Season to date: 15-7 straight-up, 9-13 against the spread.