Between now and the Aug. 3 trade deadline, the narrative around the Angels is going to be quite clear. Every day, fans are going to be wondering how aggressive the Angels will be in trying to get their franchise turned around through trades.
The Angels are tied for the worst record in baseball at 38-59. They are 10 games out of a playoff spot, with 65 games to play.
To many observers, that means they should trade anyone who can be traded for anything of value. In the past, the Angels have typically only traded players who were on expiring contracts, operating under the idea that they could compete in the following season, so they wanted to hang on to players who would be back.
Now, the Angels have new leadership, with interim general manager John Mozeliak. They also have a new president, Molly Jolly.
What happens at the trade deadline could be instructive as to whether Jolly has been able to influence owner Arte Moreno to change the way he oversees the baseball operation. In the past, Moreno stood in the way of what his GMs have wanted to do at the deadline.
In the meantime, it’s worth asking what the Angels could get back if they do opt to trade some of their most valuable assets, specifically starters Reid Detmers and José Soriano, and to a lesser extent outfielder Jo Adell.
The holy grail for any deadline seller is to acquire one or more top 100 prospects.
In the past three years, only five prospects ranked in the top 100 by Baseball America have been traded in the month leading up to the deadline. In 2022, there were eight. (Angels catcher Logan O’Hoppe, who was ranked No. 89, was one of them. The Angels got him from the Philadelphia Phillies in the Brandon Marsh trade.)
Five of the others in 2022 were dealt in trades for outfielder Juan Soto and right-hander Luis Castillo.
Castillo is a good place to start, because he was the last starting pitcher to be moved at the deadline with two-plus years before free agency, which makes him the best comp for Detmers and Soriano.
At the time, Castillo had a 2.86 ERA and a 2.9 WAR (according to Baseball-Reference), with the Cincinnati Reds. He was 29 years old, with a career 3.62 ERA in 137 starts. The Seattle Mariners sent the Reds third baseman Noelvi Marte (No. 47), shortstop Edwin Arroyo (No. 48) and right-handed pitchers Levi Stoudt and Andrew Moore. While that was viewed as a significant prospect haul at the time, none of those players have amounted to anything yet for the Reds. Arroyo just reached the big leagues this year, and he’s still considered one of their top prospects.
Detmers, 27, has a 4.39 ERA and a 1.1 WAR. Soriano, 27, has a 3.49 ERA and a 2.2 WAR.
The reason it’s so rare for pitchers with two-plus years to be dealt is that the team trading away the pitcher would have to be confident of two things: that they aren’t likely to compete in the next two years, and that the prospect package they’re being offered now is better than anything they’d get over the next two years. That means the ask is astronomical, which is why those deals don’t usually happen.
(The prospect price for a player like shortstop Zach Neto, with three-plus years of control, would be even higher, which makes it almost impossible to pull off during the season.)
It’s more common, but still rare, to trade a pitcher with one-plus seasons to go. In 2021, the Minnesota Twins traded José Berrios to the Toronto Blue Jays. In 2022, the A’s traded Frankie Montas (and reliever Lou Trivino) to the New York Yankees. One top 100 prospect was moved in those deals, with the Twins getting outfielder Austin Martin (No. 21) from the Blue Jays.
Those comps, however, need to be adjusted for this year because of the simple issue of supply and demand. With so much mediocrity across baseball this year, there could be hardly any starting pitchers on the market. A month ago it looked like Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers, Sonny Gray of the Boston Red Sox and Joe Ryan of the Minnesota Twins would all be available, but now all of their teams are close enough to the playoff chase that they might opt to keep them.
The Kansas City Royals (Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo), San Francisco Giants (Robbie Ray) and New York Mets (Freddy Peralta) are the other teams that are totally out of the race with attractive starting pitchers to deal. Ray and Peralta are rentals.
Most contenders could use a starting pitcher.
The Milwaukee Brewers could be the perfect match for the Angels. The Brewers have one of the top farm systems in baseball, and it’s loaded with position players, which is the Angels’ weakness. The Brewers also prefer to acquire players with club control. They need a starter because they just put Kyle Harrison and Brandon Woodruff on the injured list this month, and All-Star Jacob Misiorowski was recently scratched from a start because of fatigue.
The Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago Cubs and Chicago White Sox could also have the prospects to get the Angels’ attention. Other teams, like the Padres, Phillies and Houston Astros, need starters but have bottom-tier farm systems.
Unless they trade Soriano or Detmers, the Angels aren’t going to get any franchise-altering prospect packages. They still could get useful players.
Adell, who has one year remaining before free agency, would be of interest to some teams because of the dearth of right-handed hitters on the market. The Angels might even be able to move DH Jorge Soler, who would be a rental, if he gets hot in the next two weeks, although the return would be limited.
A reasonable comp to Adell could be Lane Thomas, who was acquired by the Cleveland Guardians when he had one-plus seasons of control in 2024. Thomas had a .738 OPS when the Washington Nationals traded him. Adell has a .686 OPS, although with more upside based on last year’s .778 mark. The Nationals got three nondescript prospects for Thomas. The best of them, left-hander Alex Clemmey, is currently ranked No. 14 in the Washington system.
The Guardians are in the market for an outfielder again, as are the Phillies.
Relievers, as usual, are the most tradeable assets because no team ever has enough of them.
Right-hander Kirby Yates, despite his struggles early with the Angels, will be attractive because he’s got a 3.00 ERA with 28 strikeouts in 21 innings.
The Angels also have several relievers with multiple years of control – right-handers Ryan Zeferjahn, Chase Silseth and Sam Bachman – who will generate some interest. They all have at least four years of control beyond this one, and all have more strikeouts than innings.
Zeferjahn is an example of what you can get back for a reliever at the deadline. He was one of four players the Angels got from the Boston Red Sox for right-hander Luis Garcia at the deadline in 2024. Garcia was a rental with a 3.71 ERA, who proceeded to post an 8.22 ERA for Boston. When the Angels traded Carlos Estévez, also a rental reliever, they got back right-hander George Klassen and left-hander Sam Aldegheri. Klassen is still one of the Angels’ top pitching prospects.